Abstract:Developing a green low-carbon economy and achieving the goals of carbon peak and carbon neutralization are China's major development strategies, and adjusting the industrial structure is one of the key paths to develop a green low-carbon economy. The panel data of 30 provinces in China (excluding Tibet, Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan) from 2005 to 2019 is selected and the Spatial Dubin Model is employed for an empirical study of the impact of industrial structure adjustment on carbon emission intensity. It is found that there is a significantly positive spillover effect in the intensity of carbon emissions in China; The rationalization and upgrading of industrial structure can reduce the intensity of carbon emission inside a province, and the upgrading of industrial structure in a province is conducive to the carbon emission reduction of adjacent provinces; however, the rationalization of industrial structure in one province is not conducive to the carbon emission reduction in its neighbouring provinces; There is regional heterogeneity in the impact of industrial structure adjustment on carbon emission intensity. The findings have important application value for regional cooperation to adjust industrial structure and jointly formulate carbon emission reduction policies.